NFL picks predictions for Week 4 Bills edge Dolphins in AFC East thriller Cowboys Ravens survive close calls
NFL picks predictions for Week 4 Bills edge Dolphins in AFC East thriller Cowboys Ravens survive close calls
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Of the six divisional games in Week 4 all of which are intriguing the one can't-mi s game has to be the AFC East matchup between Miami at Buffalo. There will be several replays of Buffalo offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey's viral reaction to last year's lo s to the Dolphins, but these teams played three awesome games against each other last year. Those games which included an AFC wild card matchup - were decided by a combined total of eight points. Buffalo has outscored its last two opponents by a score of 75-13 under coach Sean McDermott. The Bills have responded to a Week 1 lo s against New York, and they cannot afford another division lo s. In those three games against Miami last season, Josh Allen averaged 352 pa sing yards per game with nine TDs and two interceptions. Miami scored 70 points in a 50-point blowout against Denver in Week 3. Second-year coach Mike McDaniel has the offense clicking around Tua Tagovailoa and a supporting cast of Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert Davante Adams Jersey and DeVon Achane, who scored four total TDs in Week 3. Jaylen Waddle (concu sion) also might be back. POWER RANKINGS: It adds up to the game of the week type feel. This rivalry hasnt been this good since Jim Kelly and Dan Marino in the 1990s. Each week, Sporting News will pick the games straight up and against the spread. Here is a look at our record this season: Straight up: 30-18 (11-5 in Week 3) ATS: 25-21-2 (11-5 in Week 3) Last week was our best week of the season in terms of picking against the spread. Will that continue in Week 4? Here are our straight-up picks (): (Getty Images) Detroit Lions (-1.5) at Green Bay Packers Thursday, 8:20 p.m., Prime Video Detroit coach Dan Campbell is 3-1 against the Packers, and that includes last year's 20-16 victory at Lambeau Field. The last three meetings were decided by a combined total of 16 points. Jordan Love and Jared Goff each have been sacked only three times this season. How much will Green Bay's Rashan Gary and Detroit's Aidan Hutchinson change that? Love's development has been impre sive, but this will be another teaching moment in a tight game. Pick: Lions 24, Packers 21 Result: Lions 34, Packers 20 Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) Sunday, 9:30 a.m., ESPN+ This is an interesting matchup by two teams that stumbled in Week 3. Jacksonville is 6-4 S/U at home under Doug Pederson the last two seasons. Trevor Lawrence has a balanced pa sing attack, and Calvin Ridley scores a TD against his former team. The Jags also rank eighth against the run (84.0 ypg.). Stick with the home team here. Pick: Jaguars 31, Falcons 21 Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS Miami won the turnover battle in all three games last season, and Mike McDaniel's offense is clicking at an extraordinary level. Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in yards per attempt (10.1), and Josh Allen has taken just two sacks the last two weeks. Which defense takes the other quarterback out of their comfort zone? Pick: Bills 34, Dolphins 31 (Getty Images) Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Chicago Bears Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS It's a battle between two winle s teams that were outscored 111-30 last week in college-style blowouts. That makes this one a true to s-up, and it will revert to quarterback play. Ru sell Wilson does not turn the ball over as much as Justin Fields in this game, and that's the difference. That over (46.5) seems hard until you realize how bad the defenses have been. Pick: Broncos 28, Bears 24 Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS We have picked the Browns incorrectly straight up each of the past three weeks, but we'll just pin that on the inconsistency of Deshaun Watson. The Browns' defense under Jim Schwartz, which ranks first in the league in total defense (163.7) and points per game (10.7), is legit. Lamar Jackson is 6-1 against the Browns as the starter, and he left with an ankle injury in the only lo s. Pick: Ravens 22, Browns 21 Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Tenne see Titans Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox Joe Burrow is 3-0 against the Titans, including postseason. Burrow averages 289 pa sing yards in those games, and despite the short week Cincinnati should be able to put together enough on the road against Tenne see, whose offense can't be any worse than last week. Pick: Bengals 27, Titans 21 (Getty Images) Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-1) Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox This is a hard-to-figure-out spread no matter how many times you look at it. Gardner Minshew led an impre sive victory against Baltimore, but he also took five sacks. Matthew Stafford is still making it work, and he will play better indoors. Los Angeles' pa s rush led by Aaron Donald will do the rest. This game would be more fun with Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor on the field. Pick: Rams 23, Colts 21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3) Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox Monitor Derek Carr, who suffered a sprained AC joint against Green Bay in Week 3. This might turn into a battle between former Heisman Trophy winners Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield. That screams defensive struggle, and the Saints are a touch better on that side of the ball not to mention at home. We'll take New Orleans at home with or without Carr. Pick: Saints 22, Buccaneers 18 Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles ( Bryan Edwards Jersey -7) Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox These teams split last year, and Washington has won two of the last three at Philadelphia. That suggests that line might be too high, but the Commanders are coming off a 37-3 reality check against the Bills. That makes this NFC East rivalry even more difficult to read, but it's tough to take Washington knowing the run defense has allowed more than 5.0 yards per carry the last two weeks. Jalen Hurts and D'Andre Swift will enjoy succe s against that. Pick: Eagles 30, Commanders 24 Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Houston Texans Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS C.J. Stroud, meet T.J. Watt. The Steelers' linebacker leads the NFL with six sacks, and Pittsburgh has a chance to pick up a second straight road victory. The Texans are an improved team under DeMeco Ryans, and Stroud showed what he could do with solid pa s protection a total of 280 pa sing yards and two TDs with no sacks in Week 3. The Steelers will turn up the pre sure. Pick: Steelers 25, Texans 18 Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Carolina Kolton Miller Jersey Panthers Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox While Stroud is thriving, Carolina might be without Young, who suffered an ankle injury in Week 2. Andy Dalton pa sed for 361 yards in Dalton's place in Week 3, but it was an inefficient performance in a lo s to Seattle. The Vikings have lost three one-score games despite the fact Kirk Cousins ranks third in the NFL in pa ser rating (108.2). Minnesota gets in the win column. Pick: Vikings 26, Panthers 23 Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS The Raiders are struggling to find offensive options outside of Davante Adams, who has 322 yards and three TDs. Jimmy Garoppolo continues to struggle with interceptions, too. That's not the right recipe against a Chargers' team that finally won a close game. Los Angeles' three games have been decided by a total of nine points. Can we trust a cover? Pick: Chargers 27, Raiders 22 (Getty Images) New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (-7) Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox The Cowboys were brought back to Earth in a brutal lo s at Arizona, and the Patriots picked up their first victory of the season. That was on the road. Prescott will be more comfortable at home, and the Patriots are averaging just 17.3 points per game. The Cowboys lead the NFL with a +6 turnover differential, and that always matters against Bill Belichick. Pick: Cowboys 28, Patriots 24 Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14) Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox That's the largest line of the week, and it hasn't moved. That's faith in San Francisco, which along with Buffalo are the only teams that rank in the top five in scoring offense and scoring defense. The Cardinals are coming off an impre sive upset against Dallas, but can Joshua Dobbs take the show on the road? Both of last year's games were blowouts, but we think this one falls right on the line. Pick: 49ers 30, Cardinals 17 Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at New York Jets Sunday, 8:20 pm., NBC We all know who the star of this game was supposed to be. Instead, the Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce fascination will continue, and the Chiefs will look to cover for a third straight week since the Week 1 lo s to the Lions. Zach Wilson who has a 52.4% completion percentage might be running out of chances here. Patrick Mahomes does the rest. The Jets won't generate enough offense to keep up. Pick: Chiefs 31, Jets 17 Seattle Seahawks (-1) at New York Giants Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN The Seahawks are road favorites against the Giants, which had a long week after a Thursday Night Football lo s to the 49ers. Saquon Barkley (ankle) still remains uncertain, but the line has dropped a half-point from its open. The Seahawks won their only game as an away favorite last week, and Kenneth Walker III picked it up in the running game last week. Pick: Seahawks 24, Giants 21
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